Search Results/Filters    

Filters

Year

Banks



Expert Group











Full-Text


Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2022
  • Volume: 

    7
  • Issue: 

    2
  • Pages: 

    1-22
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    187
  • Downloads: 

    15
Abstract: 

Purpose: Clustering and co-word analysis is a method to reveal relationships and links and illustrate the intellectual structure of a scientific field. This research tries to study the intellectual structure of articles in the field of futures studies in Iran by using the technique of co-word analysis. Method: The current research is a descriptive-analytical development with a scientometric approach. The statistical population is 921 articles retrieved records in the field of futures studies. Findings: The findings showed that articles in the field of futures studies in Iran are often associated with positive growth, and in terms of frequency, the keywords scenario, Islamic Republic, and foresight are the most frequent in futures studies. The findings related to the hierarchical clustering led to the formation of 8 clusters in this field, namely "ICT visions", "geographers who love the future", "knowledge development", " Futuristic higher education", "Future of Religion", "Regional Relations", "Strategic Foresight" and "Heavy Weight of Method". Conclusion: According to the findings of the current research and the high frequency of the keyword scenario, as well as the density and relationships of this keyword with other keywords, it can be concluded that the scenario is the dominant approach in futures studies. Also, according to the resulting clusters, it was observed that these researches have a high variety, but addressing the future in many areas is still neglected.

Yearly Impact: مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

View 187

مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic ResourcesDownload 15 مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic ResourcesCitation 0 مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic ResourcesRefrence 0
Author(s): 

GAVAHI ABDORRAHIM

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2017
  • Volume: 

    28
  • Issue: 

    109
  • Pages: 

    15-24
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    4527
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

foresight in futures studies: Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) for challenges towards futures studies in Iran, foresight in futures studies: Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) for challenges towards futures studies in Iran, foresight in futures studies: Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) for challenges towards futures studies in Iran,foresight in futures studies: Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) for challenges towards futures studies in Iran, foresight in futures studies: Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) for challenges towards futures studies in Iran, foresight in futures studies: Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) for challenges towards futures studies in Iran, foresight in futures studies: Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) for challenges towards futures studies in Iran, foresight in futures studies: Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) for challenges towards futures studies in Iran,foresight in futures studies: Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) for challenges towards futures studies in Iran,foresight in futures studies: Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) for challenges towards futures studies in Iran,foresight in futures studies: Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) for challenges towards futures studies in Iran, foresight in futures studies: Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) for challenges towards futures studies in Iran.

Yearly Impact: مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

View 4527

مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic ResourcesDownload 0 مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic ResourcesCitation 0 مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic ResourcesRefrence 0
Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2015
  • Volume: 

    3
Measures: 
  • Views: 

    478
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

THE CONCEPT OF WILD CARD WAS FIRST INTRODUCED BY JOHN L. PETERSEN IN 1999 IN HIS FAMOUS BOOK ‘OUT OF THE BLUE’, DESPITE THE FACT THAT YEARS BEFORE IN LATE 60S, SHELL CORPORATION USED THEM, THEY WERE NOT KNOWS AS WILD CARDS BUT RAPIDS OR DISRUPTIONS AND NO SPECIFIC METHODOLOGY WERE USED FOR THEM EITHER. A WILD CARD IS AN EVENT WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE BUT A HIGH IMPACT ON THE SYSTEM, TAKE WWI AND WWII AND APPEARANCE OF THE INTERNET AND PCS FOR INSTANCE. THERE ARE MANY APPROACHES FOR IDENTIFYING WILD CARDS INCLUDING, BRAINSTORMING, EXPERT INTERVIEWS, SURVEYS, HISTORICAL ANALOGIES AND SCIENCE FICTION. WEAK SIGNALS ARE SOMETIMES CONSIDERED AS SYNONYM TO WILD CARDS, WEAK SIGNALS HOWEVER, HELP US WITH IDENTIFYING WILD CARDS. WILD CARDS IN COMBINATION WITH SCENARIOS ARE VERY USEFUL, AND SINCE SCENARIO BUILDING METHOD IS THE MOST COMMON APPROACH FOR PREDICTING THE FUTURE IN FORESIGHT, LEARNING WILD CARDS METHOD SEEMS ESSENTIAL TO RESEARCHERS OF FORESIGHT. THE MOST IMPORTANT ADVANTAGE OF THIS METHOD IS THAT IT SHOWS US BLIND SPOTS OF OUR PERCEPTION OF THE FUTURE BUT SINCE WILD CARDS IN FIRST SIGHT SEEM HARD TO BELIEVE IT IS A STRUGGLE TO CONVINCE THE BENEFICIARIES TO BELIEVE THEM.

Yearly Impact:   مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

View 478

مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic ResourcesDownload 0
Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2023
  • Volume: 

    20
  • Issue: 

    84
  • Pages: 

    11-46
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    142
  • Downloads: 

    24
Abstract: 

Due to the scope of its duties, the General Police Command of the Islamic Republic of Iran has always been faced with emerging trends and interpretations and issues related to the economy. By focusing on future-oriented studies and identifying macro trends and drivers affecting the future of the economy, Faraja can free itself from organizational weakness in the face of uncertainties and emerging trends by taking proactive measures. This research aims to study the future of Farajah economy. The method of this research is prospective research. The statistical population of this research is made up of all the people who are working in Faraja's deputy and specialized police departments who are working in Faraja's economic field. Therefore, the statistical sample size was determined to be 25 people, and this number was selected using the purposeful sampling method.In this research, 31 drivers influencing the future of Faraja's economy were extracted, and the economic axis and socio-cultural axis covered the largest number of drivers with 13 and 7 drivers, respectively. Based on the combination of importance and uncertainty, 4 critical uncertainties have been identified, one of these uncertainties is the combination of three factors (sanctions, currency fluctuations and government financial instability) and due to the correlation of these factors to each other in the form of an axis next to the three The other axis means: increasing or decreasing the number of human resources, government policies and approaches, and positive cultural beliefs and behaviors have formed the main axes of the scenarios. In this way, 16 possible scenarios have been depicted and based on morphological analysis, four scenarios have been selected as compatible and selected scenarios for storytelling. In the final part, the economic situation of Faraja in each of the four scenarios is drawn and explained. Finally, by combining these results, critical uncertainties have been identified and scenarios have been formulated. In the final part of this chapter, the story of the scenarios is narrated and the prioritization of the scenarios is discussed.

Yearly Impact: مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

View 142

مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic ResourcesDownload 24 مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic ResourcesCitation 0 مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic ResourcesRefrence 0
Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2022
  • Volume: 

    7
  • Issue: 

    2
  • Pages: 

    203-234
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    199
  • Downloads: 

    27
Abstract: 

Objective: In many countries, the advancements in information technologies and the decentralized computing method has inspired hope to take advantage of modern information technologies, such as artificial intelligence, in order to overcome the unique challenges in global health including the coronavirus crisis. The following study tries to examine the possible future scenarios in the industry, with the aim of discovering new opportunities to increase health and quality of life.Findings: Considering the research literature, seventeen drivers, which had affected the research in three dimensions, were identified and the Delphi method was used for the accuracy of confirmation, their rankings and for the calculation of their certainty. The relationships between the drivers and the identified dimensions were measured and confirmed in the form of hypotheses and model presentations by structural equation methods. Using the cross-matrix method, five drivers were identified as risk and goal. Finally, through the identification of uncertainty and risk and goal drivers, four scenarios were developed.Conclusion: Conclusion: The treatment structure and medical equipment influenced by COVID-19 pandemic conditions and due to the growth rate, optimal and intelligent application of modern digital technologies creates a wide-ranging evolution in this field and illustrates the possibility of achieving a desired future by taking advantage of the scenario of the formation of an interconnected global society and the realization of global health in the interaction of artificial intelligence drivers, novel production demands, sanctions, internet of things (IoT) and blockchain.

Yearly Impact: مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

View 199

مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic ResourcesDownload 27 مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic ResourcesCitation 0 مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic ResourcesRefrence 0
Author(s): 

Fazli Safar | Niknam Ali

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2025
  • Volume: 

    31
  • Issue: 

    124
  • Pages: 

    139-174
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    8
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

Extended Abstract  Introduction and Objectives: Futures studies, as an interdisciplinary field within the social sciences, require foundational research to sustain and deepen their development, drawing on philosophical, ideological, and theoretical insights from emerging paradigms. This study aims to propose a conceptual framework for the applicability of futures studies, thereby facilitating similar research efforts. In doing so, it helps scholars and researchers save time while encouraging greater engagement with such inquiries, ultimately enhancing the dynamism and flexibility of futures studies. Additionally, to implement this framework, the theoretical implications of fuzzy set theory for futures studies are examined. This study represents the first comprehensive and concise articulation of the conceptual framework for the applicability of futures studies. Moreover, no prior research has specifically explored the applications, guidelines, or implications of fuzzy set theory within the context of futures studies.Like all other scientific disciplines, futures studies inherit their ontology from a broader scientific paradigm. As a distinct field, it also possesses its own epistemology and methodology. Consequently, the applicability framework operates on at least these three levels. During the research process, it became evident that futures studies rely on certain assumptions; without these, the conceptual framework would appear incomplete. Therefore, these assumptions are also explored.Method: This research is applied and qualitative in nature. Data were collected using a documentary approach, primarily from articles and books available in reputable scientific databases through digital resources. The data are qualitative, and their primary analytical method is thematic analysis, conducted within the methodological framework of implication research. Implication research involves establishing an academic connection between the source of implications and their destination, based on an informed conjecture about the guidance the source provides for the target domain. The methodology of implication research follows a sequential process aimed at bridging two distinct knowledge domains, facilitating the extraction of accurate and relevant implications for the target field. The research design in implication studies can be broadly categorized into systematic and emergent approaches. In the systematic approach, the conceptual framework for the applicability of the target field is carefully designed at the outset. Subsequently, relevant implications are identified from the contributions of the source domain for each element of that framework (Danaeefard, 2016).Discussion and Conclusions: A comprehensive review of reputable sources reveals that the most robust theoretical foundation for futures studies is critical realism. From this perspective, the ontology of futures studies posits that existing realities are understandable but have been shaped over time by economic, political, social, cultural, ethnic, and gender-related factors. These realities manifest as structures that have taken on a concrete form, often appearing as immutable natural truths.Furthermore, in the epistemology of futures studies, plausibility replaces the certainty typically associated with epistemic propositions. Since the future is shaped by both the past and the present, futurists cannot study the future without considering these two temporal dimensions. While evidence exists for the past and present, no such evidence is available for the future. Therefore, futurists can use critical realism to analyze the past and present in order to construct future-oriented propositions. When making forecasts, epistemic statements must be grounded in arguments supported by both formal and informal evidence. Given that the future has not yet materialized, and the truth-value of statements about it remains undetermined, the key criterion becomes the plausibility of those statements. Acknowledging the vital role of background knowledge in generating future-oriented insights, these propositions must consider the social nature and processes involved in the production of knowledge.Many of the methods employed in futures studies have been adapted from other scientific disciplines, a common practice due to the interdisciplinary nature of the field. However, there are also methods specific to futures studies, including: (1) Ethnographic Futures Research, (2) Backcasting, (3) Environmental Scanning, (4) Morphological Analysis, (5) Causal Layered Analysis, (6) Visioning, (7) Roadmapping, (8) Robust Decision-Making, (9) Futures Wheel, (10) Delphi Method, (11) Scenario Planning, (12) Weak Signals, and (13) Wild Cards.Futures studies are built on a range of assumptions, principles, and foundational ideas. While some of these assumptions are not exclusive to the field, they are essential to its structure and cannot easily be dismissed. Among all the principles and assumptions, the list proposed by Bell (2003) in his book is the most comprehensive. No additional assumptions were found in other sources that were not already included in Bell’s framework. According to Bell, the key assumptions of futures studies include: (1) The Meaning of Time, (2) The Possible Singularity of the Future, (3) Futures Thinking and Action, (4) The Most Useful Knowledge, (5) Future Facts (?), (6) An Open Future, (7) Humans Make Themselves, (8) Interdependence and Holism, (9) Better Futures, (10) People and Their Projects, (11) Society as Expectation and Decision, and (12) The Existence and Knowledge of External Reality (Bell, 2003).The theoretical implications of fuzzy set theory for futures studies were examined, focusing specifically on its methodological aspects, rather than its ontological, epistemological, or assumption-based dimensions. Within this methodological context, linguistic term processing emerged as the most significant contribution, applicable across all methods. Fuzzy classification was ranked second in importance, relevant to six methods, while the fuzzy inference system was the third and final contribution, applicable solely to robust decision-making and scenario planning.To further enhance the dynamism of the futures studies discipline, future research should explore the implications of emerging theories, sciences, or technologies. Investigating these areas could contribute to enriching this framework and reinforcing its validity for practitioners.Additionally, it is recommended that experts from other disciplines who are interested in futures studies use the framework presented in this article to identify the implications of their specialized fields for the discipline. This approach will not only ensure the continued growth of futures studies but also extend the applicability of their own fields, given the vast scope of this interdisciplinary area.Acknowledgement: The authors wish to express their sincere gratitude to the editorial team of the Methodology of Social Sciences and Humanities Journal and the distinguished reviewers for their invaluable feedback, which played a crucial role in enhancing the quality of this article.

Yearly Impact: مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

View 8

مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic ResourcesDownload 0 مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic ResourcesCitation 0 مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic ResourcesRefrence 0
Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2015
  • Volume: 

    3
Measures: 
  • Views: 

    235
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

THE EDUCATION SYSTEM IS POTENTIALLY ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT SOCIAL SYSTEMS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF COUNTRIES. ONE OF THE BASIC TASKS OF EACH EDUCATION SYSTEM IS TO PROVIDE A CLEAR PICTURE OF A DESIRED HUMAN, AND THE SIGNIFICANCE OF FUTURE, IS IN FACT, THE MOST UNDERLYING REASON FOR EVERY EDUCATION SYSTEM. FROM PRIMARY TO HIGHER EDUCATION, IT NECESSARILY HAS TO BE BASED ON THE FUTURE NEEDS BECAUSE THE PURPOSE OF EVERY EDUCATION SYSTEM IS TO PROVIDE A STUDENTS WITH THE REQUIRED KNOWLEDGE AND SKILLS FOR EFFECTIVE PARTICIPATION IN THE SOCIETY NOT ONLY TODAY BUT ALSO IN THE FUTURE. THE PURPOSE OF THIS STUDY IS TO EXPLAIN PROBLEMS OF THE EDUCATION SYSTEM. THE EDUCATION SYSTEM, AS ONE OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMICAL SYSTEM COMPONENTS, IS DEFINED FOR THIS PURPOSE. EFFECTIVE DRIVERS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SOCIAL SYSTEM ARE DEFINED RESPECTIVELY, AND THE PURPOSE AND ALSO THE IMPORTANCE OF FUTURES STUDIES IN THE EDUCATION SYSTEM IS DEFINED AS WELL. AT THE END, SUGGESTIONS ARE PROVIDED REGARDING THE IMPACT AND APPLICATION OF FUTURES STUDIES IN THE LEARNING PROCESS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO SAY THAT THE TERM EDUCATION IN THE PRESENT STUDY MEANS THE EDUCATION IN ALL LEVELS INCLUDING PRIMARY AND HIGHER EDUCATION.

Yearly Impact:   مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

View 235

مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic ResourcesDownload 0
Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2015
  • Volume: 

    3
Measures: 
  • Views: 

    707
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

TREND IMPACT ANALYSIS (TIA) METHOD, WAS FIRST INTRODUCED BY THEODORE J. GORDON IN EARLY 1970S, AT THAT TIME FORECASTING WAS MOSTLY DONE BY QUANTITATIVE METHODS BASED ON HISTORICAL DATA AND VIA TREND EXTRAPOLATION, THESE TYPES OF METHODS, HOWEVER, IGNORED THE IMPACTS OF UNEXPECTED EVENTS IN THE FUTURE. THIS PROBLEM IS APPLICABLE TO ALL QUANTITATIVE METHODS THAT ARE DEPENDENT SOLELY ON HISTORICAL DATA (FROM TIME-SERIES TO OTHER COMMON METHODS). TIA METHOD, BASES ITS FORECAST ON THE QUANTITATIVE METHODS BUT TRIES TO IMPROVE THE BASIC FORECAST BY USING EXPERTS OPINION (DELPHI METHOD IS MOSTLY USED) ABOUT PROBABLE EVENTS IN THE FUTURE. TIA IS ONE OF THE MOST WIDELY USED METHODS IN FUTURES STUDIES, WE CAN USE THIS TECHNIC FOR FORECASTING, CONTINGENCY PLANNING, POLITICAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS, STRATEGIC PLANNING AND SCENARIO WRITING.

Yearly Impact:   مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

View 707

مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic ResourcesDownload 0
Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2023
  • Volume: 

    4
  • Issue: 

    2
  • Pages: 

    41-70
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    159
  • Downloads: 

    43
Abstract: 

Futures Studies as an emerging trans-disciplinary science is quickly gaining legitimacy and expansion in both theory and practical areas. Military and security sections have always been the main customers of future-oriented analytical research. One of the major obstacles in the way of generalization futures studies and acquisition of scientific pervasive legitimacy are epistemological and methodological challenges in this area. This paper will consider compliance futures studies with the current framework of social science. Then, the article reviews the philosophy of science, and in particular some of the early paradigms such as critical realism and pragmatism. We followed this article with an attempt to seek appropriate philosophical paradigms for Muslim futurists. Therefore, the article tries to seek the crude proposed Islamic realism (with the taste of transcendental wisdom and realism of Allameh Tabatabai).In this way, future studies in the military fields can be based on the Strong foundation of the epistemological framework in which the validity of reason and quotation is accepted from the achievements of the colleges of the Military colleges and the school of theology simultaneously to benefit.

Yearly Impact: مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

View 159

مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic ResourcesDownload 43 مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic ResourcesCitation 0 مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic ResourcesRefrence 0
Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2015
  • Volume: 

    26
  • Issue: 

    103
  • Pages: 

    59-67
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    3455
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

The education System is potentially one of the most important social systems in the development of countries. One of the basic tasks of each education system is to provide a clear picture of a desired human, and The significance of future, is in fact, the most underlying reason for every education system. From primary to higher education, it necessarily has to be based on the future needs because the purpose of every education system is to provide a students with the required knowledge and skills for effective participation in the society not only today but also in the future. The purpose of this study is to explain problems of the education system. The education system, as one of the socio-economical system components, is defined for this purpose. Effective drivers in the development of this social system are defined respectively, and the purpose and also the importance of futures studies in the education system is defined as well. At the end, suggestions are provided regarding the impact and application of futures studies in the learning process. It is important to say that the term education in the present study means the education in all levels including primary and higher education.

Yearly Impact: مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

View 3455

مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic ResourcesDownload 0 مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic ResourcesCitation 0 مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic ResourcesRefrence 0
litScript
email sharing button
telegram sharing button
whatsapp sharing button
linkedin sharing button
twitter sharing button
email sharing button
email sharing button
sharethis sharing button